Ginny's Thoughts & Things

Thinking Out Loud…

Archive for August, 2008

Israel deports African migrants to Egypt in crackdown

Posted by Ginny on August 31, 2008

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Gustav Will Bring Rip Currents, Storms To Bay Area

Posted by Ginny on August 31, 2008

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Hilal Sighting Committee – Hilal update on Ramdhan 1429 H

Posted by Ginny on August 31, 2008

From hilalsighting.org

Sunday, 31 August 2008
As can be seen from the visibility curves at http://www.crescentmoonwatch.org/nextnewmoon.htm, the Hilal will be see in the US on Monday, September 1, thereby starting Ramadan on Tuesday, September 2 in North America Insha’Allaah. However we encourage all to try to sight the Hilal on the evening of Sunday, August 31 as well and send any reports to report@hilalsighting.orgThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it giving their name(s), location, contact telephone(s), age, religion, as well as contacts of their local Masjid and Imam who can vouch for their integrity Insha’Allaah. The decision of the Hilal Sighting Committee of North America will be announced on this website on Sunday, Augst 31 evening after Sunset in California Insha’Allaah.

For details on this issue please see the English language video http://baytuliman.org/pdf/Moon_Sighting_&_Islamic_Dates_Solution.wmv and read the paper at www.hilalsighting.org/papers/salman.pdf website. You can play the video in your Masjid and distribute the paper, translating if needed Insha’Allaah.

For Arabic language video, on Wednesday, January 2, 2008 there was an excellent interview on AlJazeera TV “Belaa Hudood” program about issues with the Saudi announced Hejiri dates including last year’s erroneous Dhul-Hijja date. The program featured Br. Mohammad Odeh of the Islamic Crescents’ Observation Project (ICOP), Abu-Dhabi, UAE, and many other scholars from several countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Qatar and Algeria. This video, which refers to http://www.hilalsighting.org the website of Hilal Sighting Committee of North America can be seen at http://www.hilalsighting.org/content/view/43 and http://youtube.com/watch?v=lx0rLtKPzbc

Please note that on August 31 evening it is IMPOSSIBLE to sight the Hilal in Saudi Arabia, even with Telescopes. May Allaah SWT guide all Ummah to Haq with Khayr. Aameen.

Also, please encourage all in North America to click on http://www.hilalsighting.org/register.html and register with their email addresses with the Hilal Sighting Committee of North America to get Hilal Alerts Insha’Allaah. It only takes a minute or so and is Free.

Please play your role in forwarding and propagating this information Insha’Allaah. Alhamdulillaah this is the most reliable website for Hilal Sighting Decisions in North America and is also the Highest ranked website on the Internet for searches on the word “Hilal Sighting ”.

Note: I understand that some have already started Ramadan, and Alhamdulillah and Ramadan Mubarak to everyone, even those who’ve not started yet and who may not, Inshallah, start until Tuesday. I’ve decided this year to try to make all of the moon sighting announcements and information available and Inshallah, people can make the choices they’re most comfortable with. As I’d stated earlier, I have my own feelings on this issue which are well-known and can be found merely by doing a google search of this blog. However, I don’t like being contentious, I don’t like conflict, and as I’ve stated before, fighting about it doesn’t get Ramadan, or Shawwal/Eid-ul-Fitr, for that matter, off to a good start either.
Heck, my husband and I don’t agree on this issue, he being completely comfortable and sure of following the local masjid (who has gone with the Saudi announcement and will start tomorrow), and I chosing to follow a local/regional sighting, based on the madhhab I follow and what I’ve been taught by reliable teachers. However, other people may do other things for any number of reasons, so my goal is not to fight about this! But to make information available and Inshallah, people come to the decision they’re most comfortable with and Inshallah, we are all rewarded and our fasts our accepted, since that is the main goal isn’t it?

If I can respect my husband’s starting tomorrow, and the local community at large starting tomorrow, and my husband can also respect my decision, assuming there’s no local/regional sighting here tonight, to respect my decision to start Tuesday, then shurely, I can respect everyone else’s decision to start whenever, based on their level of knowledge, what they’ve been taught, and their comfort level with the people making the decisions in their local area, assuming of course, there’s not an official authority making the decision, in which case, it seems the ruling for following them would be different, than say, here in the US, where we don’t have such an authority.

Anyway, I didn’t mean to make such a long post out of this. I’ve just chosen to let those more knowledgeable than myself possible hammer out a solution for those of us in the US, so that perhaps we could be united on this issue, but as long as you have people following disparate criteria for moon sighting, we won’t be united any time soon.

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Pakistani lawmaker defends honor killings – International Herald Tribune

Posted by Ginny on August 30, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, found this article via Mere Islam blog. And just as he said, there’s no comment, except a kind of question, don’t Muslim women have the right to choose their own husbands? Isn’t forced marriage wrong Islamicly? And to murder women for defying some cultural/tribal custom, to murder them as a way of maintaining or upholding some kind of code of “honor”? I’d like for someone to explain this to me, according to the article, they didn’t even try to justify it Islamicly, even saying “it’s no big deal”?! We’re talking about the murder of women/people here, right before Ramadan no less, and it’s “no big deal”? How can they justify this? I guess they can’t because they tried to keep the whole thing quiet. I need to stop now because I can feel the anger rising in me as we speak!

Pakistani lawmaker defends honor killings – International Herald Tribune

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Ramadan Mubarak

Posted by Ginny on August 30, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, wishing everyone a blessed Ramadan. Inshallah we all benefit from this blessed month. Inshallah, I’ll make the best of this month as we don’t know if we’ll be here to see another one.

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Muslims’ Month of Fasting Starts Monday | theledger.com | The Ledger | Lakeland, FL

Posted by Ginny on August 30, 2008

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Moon Bits…

Posted by Ginny on August 29, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, from the myriad websites I frequent regarding moonsighting (and I do this for every Islamic month as one year, perhaps my second or third year being a Muslim, Ramadan literally caught me unawares, I found out literally the night before Ramadan was supposed to start, you can imagine how I felt, like I was late for an important appointment or test I’d completely forgotten about, and I had to rush to prepare, it was awful), I give you the various announcements concerning the start of Ramadan. Make the best decision for you, that brings peace to you and gives you certainty Inshallah. And May all of you have a Blessed, Fulfilling, and Spiritually uplifting Ramadan.

From Crescentwatch.org:

Beginning of Ramadan Based on Sighting of New Moon

Crescentwatch.org adheres to the traditional principal that Islamic lunar months begin and end based on the confirmed, verifiable sighting of the new crescent moon. Click here for Zaytuna Institute’s Statement Concerning the Determination of Islamic Dates and the Beginning of Ramadan.
Crescentwatch.org encourages everyone to go out to look for the new crescent moon this Sunday night in anticipation of the beginning of the sacred month of Ramadan. However, Muslim astronomers have indicated that it is very unlikely that the new moon will be sightable anywhere in North America on Sunday evening (see visibility charts here). We are thus anticipating the sighting of the moon and the start of Ramadan to occur on Monday night with the first day of the fast on Tuesday (Sept. 2), in sha Allah.

The crescent would be visible shortly after sunset, slightly to the left, and above where the sun had set. It is a beautiful experience to sight its emergence, and it is a sunnah of our noble Prophet, sal Allahu alayhi wa salam, that we hope the ummah revives.

Please check our site (www.crescentwatch.org) for regular updates, moon sighting reports, and additional information on moonsighting. We will post our final determination regarding the start of Ramadan on Sunday at 9:00pm PST.

Posted: August 28, 2008 17:55 PST

——————————————————————————–

Statement Concerning the Beginning of Ramadan
From Zaytuna Institute
In The Name of Allah, Most Compassionate, Most Merciful
As Muslims we have a clear methodology for determining the beginning of the lunar month. We start all months upon the initial physical sighting of the waxing crescent moon on the western horizon of the evening sky. The method for beginning the month of Ramadan is no exception as the Messenger of Allah, peace upon him, has said: “Begin your fast upon sighting [the crescent moon] and end your fast upon sighting [the subsequent crescent].” The four schools of Sunni Islam hold that this is an unambiguous, clear textual proof that is not open to subsequent interpretation.

Here at the Zaytuna Institute, we have consistently adhered to this methodology. With the assistance of an experienced international team of crescent observers, we endeavor to share with the Muslim community information concerning the beginning of the lunar months, with special attention paid to the months of Ramadan, Shawwal, and Dhul-Hijja. In Sha Allah, we will continue to provide this service to our community.

As for starting Ramadan based upon mathematical calculation, we have found no convincing argument that this was ever a practice of the Muslim community and truly believe based upon the position of our great jurists and masters of Ijtihad, namely, that the text supporting physical sighting is unequivocal and thus not open to any new Ijtihad. Furthermore, we understand the issue not to be one of sound difference of opinion but rather innovation and should be avoided. The Prophet, peace be upon him said, “Beware of introduced affairs [in our religion], for every introduced affair is an innovation and ever innovation is a type of going astray.” And God alone knows best.

Having said that, we never desire to see any divisiveness in our community and request that Muslims avoid disputes and bitter arguments concerning this point. Those who have put forward calculation as a method are doing so with their understanding that it is a way of facilitation for the Muslims in the West. They are scholars in their respective areas of expertise. And while we differ with their attempts at a new Ijtihad, we believe their intentions are sound and that their honor (‘Ird) should be respected. Rather, we encourage our brothers and sisters to consider the various arguments and then make a mature decision bearing in mind the prescient advice of our noble Prophet, peace upon him: “Leave that which causes you doubt for that which eradicates doubt.”

May Allah bless everyone with a productive and beneficial month of fasting. …and the last of our prayers is all praise is for Allah, the Lord of the Worlds.

Posted: August 26, 2008 10:52 PST

——————————————————————————–

The Islamic Crescents’ Observation Project also has a Ramadan page, though I’m not posting any quotes from their site as I found them to be confsuing from a blindness perspective, and the graphs, etc., I found to be of not much help to me. But I have posted the links as the sightlings among us *smile*, might benefit from them, Inshallah. ICOP also has a Shawwal page (already?) and I also thought that ICOP had a link where one could read reports of moon sighting from around the world, but I can’t seem to find it (perhaps it’s a graphical link that one must click on). But if anyone can find it, I’d be happy to link to it here.

And onward and forward…

From moonsighting.com:

From the “Bulletin Board”

Bulletin Board

Ramadan begins on the evening of August 31, first day of Ramadan being on September 1 – announced by Fiqh Council of North America, Islamic Society of North America, and European Council of Fatwa & Research.
Ramadan crescent moon will not be visible on August 30 anywhere. On August 31, it can easily be seen in South America and Polynesian islands. On August 31, it is possible but difficult to see in South Africa, Northern part of South America, Caribbean Islands and Central America. By telescope it can be seen in Australia and USA on August 31. On September 1, it will be easily visible by naked eye in most of the world, except in Northern areas of Asia, Europe, and Canada.

And Later on…

Ramadan crescent moon will be visible on August 31 in South America and Polynesian Islands. On September 1, it can easily be seen in New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Middle East, Africa, and Americas..

Also, for those following Saudi and who are using the Ummul-Qura calendar, moonsighting.com notes the following regarding the date:

August 29, 2008 (Friday)
Shaaban 28, 1429 AH
This date is based on calculated Ummul-Qura Calendar used by many countries of the world.

However, based on confirmed sighting in the USA, today, August 29, is Sha’baan 27, making August 31, the 29th of Sha’baan.

Crescentwatch.org, islamicmoon.com, hilalsighting.org, and chicagohilal.com all have today (Friday August 29) as 27th Sha’baan.

moonsighting.com also has a page set up for viewing and collecting moonsighting reports.

This page has a seeming revision to what was posted regarding Ramadan which differs slightly from the main site:

The Astronomical New Moon is on Saturday, August 30, 2008 at 19:58 Universal Time (i.e., 3:58 pm EDT, and 12:58 pm PDT ). This moon is impossible to be seen any where on earth on August 30. On August 31, the moon will be sightable in South America by naked eye, and possibly in South Africa and in Central America if wheather conditions are perfect. It would be very difficult to see in North America on August 31, but it will be visible on Sep 1, Insha-Allah. Therefore, first day of Ramadan (fasting) in North America according to sighting, is expected to be September 2, Insha-Allah. However, according to Saudi Ummul-Qura calendar, Fiqh Council of North America, and European Council for Fatwa and Research, the first day of Ramadan is on Monday, September 1, 2008.

In UK, the moon may still not be visible on September 1. However, according to a new Fatawa from Deoband, India, the first day of Ramadan in UK will be September 2, because the moon should be easily seen by naked eye from Australia to Morocco. In Pakistan also, sighting will be easy on September 1, and first day of Ramadan will also be September 2.

From IslamicMoon.com:

Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1429 (2008)

Ramadan on September 2, 2008 (Tuesday)

Ramadan Hilal will be seen in the US, insha-Allah, on 1 September 2008, after sunset. On August 31, Moon’s elevation for most of the US is between only 2.1 – 5.9 degrees, not enough to see even through a telescope. On Sep. 1, the moon’s altitude becomes 9.1 degrees at sunset (good enough to be seen in some southern states) Age: 51- 54 hours; moonset 53 minutes after the sunset.

Outside USA: The first possibility of seeing the Hilal is on 31 August 2008 in South Africa, and parts of South. America.

Eid al-Fitr on October 2 (Thursday)

Insha-Allah, Shawwal Hilal will be seen after sunset in the USA on 1 October 2008. On Sep. 30, Moon’s age in the US is 38-42 hours, but its elevation above the ground is between 2.1 – 7.9 degrees only (not enough to see). On Oct. 1, Hilal will appear quite thick, but it is of the first date as a Hadith (Fa-huwa li-lailatin raaitumuuhu…The moon is for the night it is seen (irrespective of it’s size)) explains.

Alert: There is a very slim chance of seeing Shawwal Hilal on September 30 in southern Florida (Lag 38 minutes and Altitude 7.9 at sunset makes it extremely unlikely).

Outside USA: The first possibility of seeing the Hilal extends from Australia to Indonesia, central and southern Africa as well as South America on 30 September 2008.

ISNA FIQH COUNCIL DATES FOR RAMADAN AND EID AL-FITR 1429
ISNA has discarded the Hilal totally. According to the new criteria adopted by the Fiqh last year they fix the Islamic dates in the USA on the conjunction before sunset and moon setting after sunset in Makkah (though a Hilal cannot be seen either in Makkah or the USA). ISNA fixed dates are:

Ramadan 1429: September 1, 2008
The Astronomical New Moon for Ramadan is on Saturday, August 30, 2008 at 19:58 Universal Time (i.e., 3:58 pm EDT, and 12:58 pm PDT).[The conjunction is before sunset and moon sets after the sunset in Makkah]. Therefore, the first day of Ramadan is on Monday, September 1, 2008.

Eid al-Fitr 1429: October 1, 2008
The Astronomical New Moon for Shawwal is on Monday, September 29, 2008 at 8:12 GMT, 4:12 am EDT, 1:12 am PDT) Therefore, the first day of Shawwal is on Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Sh’aban Began in USA on Aug. 3, 2008
Sha’ban Hilal was seen in the southern USA (Texas, Arizona New Mexico, Missouri, etc. on August 2, 2008. On August 1, moon’s age (14-18 hours), the altitude (3-5 degrees), the angle from Sun (7-10 degrees), and time-lag between the sunset and the moonset (15-23 minutes) made its visibility impossible.

Inshallah, this information is helpful and aids anyone who needs it to make the decision they feel most comfortable and at peace with.

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Man Held in Case of Mistaken Identify | theledger.com | The Ledger | Lakeland, FL

Posted by Ginny on August 29, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, oops…

Despite the different sexes, Social Security numbers, locations and fingerprints, Jean Chery of Polk County left a Publix parking lot in Haines City in handcuffs Tuesday.

Man Held in Case of Mistaken Identify | theledger.com | The Ledger | Lakeland, FL

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… And Still No Response…

Posted by Ginny on August 29, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, in case this got lost in the comments of this post, I emailed the woman querying me about the marriages of “special needs” people, ostensibly for a thesis, and I’ve yet to receive a response.

In the email (which I’d stated in the email I’d not share unless given permission by “Farheen”) I’d apologized for so publicly and strongly reacting to her request, without first emailing her privately, and putting my many questions to her first, and asking her forgiveness if I’d upset or offended her. I then proceeded to ask her my questions in a more gentle tone, attempting to take her culture and perhaps experiences into account as advised by Umm Zaid. Which I’d thought I’d done anyway in my initial post, but looking back on it, perhaps I’d not. And perhaps I shouldn’t be surpsied if she doesn’t respond to me as a result of my storng reaction. But the long and short of all of this is that so far, I’ve not gotten a response from her, and I emailed her I believe it was Sunday or Monday? I can’t remember exactly when, would have to go back into the gmail archives to find out the exact date, but I know it was some time in the beginning of the week.

And I’m probably the most indecisive, torn person on the planet but I’m not sure whether to feel badly about that fact, to just chock her lack of response to the strong reaction she initially got from me, and a so public reaction at that, or to some other, uh, “reason”. Because another thing that was so off-putting about the initial email was the fact that she didn’t give her full name, didn’t say what university she was studying at, along with all of the other issues I’d noted above.

I mean, if I was working on a thesis, and had written someone completely out of the blue, unsolicited, I’d say something like, “hello, my name is such-and-such, I’m studying at such-and-such university, and I’m working on my thesis dealing with x”. Or something to that affect. Perhaps I’d mention something about understanding how odd this might seem or I’d say something about understanding if so-and-so didn’t want to answer, etc. And well, what I got was exactly what you guys saw, minus my interspersed comments.

I also got an interview request (the comment of which I posted in the comments and you might be able to see it in my recent comments section), and I’m still mulling that one over in my head, should I be interviewed, how will any answers I give be twisted, miswritten, misused, spun, etc. And I’ll need to research the publication/people requesting the interview, something I’ve not had the time to do as of yet. Heck, I’m already acting like some kinda diva and I’ve not blown up or anything, (though what I’d blow up into I don’t know yet lol). I mean, sitting here saying who I’m going to talk to and who I’m not. Sheesh!

But anyway, I think I feel a migraine coming on, having been seeing flashing lights (and I’m totally blind, looks like someone’s quickly flashing a light in my face), how long is it usually before the flashing lights and the onset of the headache? Perhaps I’m just being, well, a worrywart. But my head is starting to hurt, and perhaps I should just go to bed.

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The So-called Religious Leaders

Posted by Ginny on August 27, 2008

..::The Gambia Journal Online::..
The So-called Religious Leaders

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Fay slowly winding down; Caribbean disturbance 94L slowly winding up

Posted by Ginny on August 24, 2008

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Marriage for “Special Needs” People?

Posted by Ginny on August 24, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, I’m still feeling groggy from, I think, oversleeping, as I’d gotten up around 8 to take Chloe out, and then went back to sleep after checking my email. I received the following email in my email box (as well as from my “contact me” form), and my comments are ninterspersed with the original email. I will say thta I don’t normally do this unless the “email” seems to be spam, or, if in this case, the email seems a bit unusually, i.e., no first/last names, the questions seeming a bit “odd”, etc. But anyway…

Asallam alikum. How are you?
i was searching for my thesis topic and i came across your “ginny’s thoughts and things”

i was very impressed. Mashallah!

Wa alaikum salam, and thank you, I’m glad you’re impressed and Inshallah, you’ll come back often. But “looking for your thesis topic”, perhaps you’re meaning to “research” your thesis topic?

my name is Farheen and ive lived and been brought up in saudia arabia. i recently moved to pakistan for my further studies. im doing my masters in Special education.

MY research topic is : marriage life of people with special needs.

can you please give me your opinions and personal experiences related to my topic that i can include in my thesis work. it will be very helpful for me and for all the others for whom im trying to bring a difference for.

I’ll try, but I’m not sure that married people with “special needs” face any more problems than married people without them. At least not here in the US, anyway, sometimes we come across ignorant people, especially if you have children, but I can’t say that marriage is any more or less difficult for someone like me, who is totally blind, than it would be for someone perfectly sighted and with no disabilities.

mention the problems faced by special people in their married life. or, special people face more problems in their married life as comapred to normal people… or problems of special people tend to increase after their marriage…

Wow! I’m not sure how to answer this, as, well, I don’t think bieng blind, in my case, creates any more or less problems *after* marriage. But then again, I had a husband who was willing to take my situation into consideration. Before I can better answer your question, I’d like to know what you mean by “problems”? I’d also like to know what were your ideas going into this research project? Do you think that “special needs” people have more or less “problems” during marriage? And what do you mean by “problems”? Social, sexual, physical?

I would like to consider your opinion from the negative and positive perspective.

thank you,

waiting for ur reply

Farheen!

Excuse me for feeling a mixture of a bit offended, feeling that this is a bit odd, and also the feeling that someone, who I don’t even know, is attempting to pry into my personal space, uninvited, and frankly, unwanted!
I’m not sure if “Farheen” is a male or a female name? If you’re a female (and a Muslim), I’d hope that you’d understand why I’m not so ready to spill the beans regarding my married life and how it’s affected by my “special needs”, and if you’re a male, it makes your questions even worse. Perhaps if your topic was a bit specific, i.e., “is your marriage affected negatively by outside people, such as friends, family, etc”., or “how do you deal with the challenges of marriage and how your blindness impacts those challenges”, something like that, but I’m not doing your homework for you, and I’m not putting words into your mouth here. But your questions are so vague and open-ended to me that I’m not sure just, exactly, what you’re getting at. Would you not have anyone in your local community that you could ask? Because their circumstances in Pakistan, or Saudi Arabia, might be different than my circumstances are here in the US. And I’m not sure who your research project is aimed at.

Allah knows best, but I’m feeling/seeing a lot of red flags in this email, and I don’t like it. If I’m wrong I’d be most happy to come out here and say it, but something about this message is wrong to me, on so many levels! Some of what’s “wrong” I can put into words and some I can’t quite. But I don’t feel comfortable answering any questions from someone I don’t know, someone I don’t know exactly, where they’re coming from, both figuratively and literally, it’d be different if I could verify who you are, if your proposal was better written, that sorta thing. But at this point, I’d have to unfortunately tell you that I do not feel comfortable at this point in time, participating in your research project. Firstly, because I do not think that my marriage is any better or worse off because of my blindness, and secondly because, if you’re wanting any “personal” details, I’m most definitely unwilling to share them.

Posted in Blindness-related, Islam, My Life Offline, Thoughts | Tagged: , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Muslimas Speak Up! Carnival – The RAMADAN Edition!

Posted by Ginny on August 23, 2008

Assalamu alaikum, the blog carnival, hosted by Aaminah, is now posted, and Mashallah, has some really good posts (which I’m slowly getting through now).

I need to do a better job of posting the Muslimahs Speak Up carnivals on my own blog (but alas, I keep forgetting). But I really like these carnivals, and you never know who will stumble upon these, and where these posts will cause people’s hearts to lead. At the very least, it shatters some myths and stereotypes about Muslim women, at best, people could be guided to Islam by these posts. And if nothing else, it shows Muslim women as average “normal”, human beings who actually *shudder* have brains. Who’da thought.

Posted in Blogging, Islam, Ramadan, Reading, Religion, Women | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Fay’s rains and tornadoes continue; disturbance 94L entering Lesser Antilles today

Posted by Ginny on August 23, 2008

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7 Florida Deaths Blamed On Fay As It Heads West

Posted by Ginny on August 22, 2008

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“The Joker” (Fay) intensifies over land!

Posted by Ginny on August 19, 2008

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Fay, Still a Tropical Storm, Sloshes Across Florida | theledger.com | The Ledger | Lakeland, FL

Posted by Ginny on August 19, 2008

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Gulf Coast Warnings Lifted, But Fay’s Not Losing Clout

Posted by Ginny on August 19, 2008

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Tropical Storm Fay 1:00 PM Public Advisory

Posted by Ginny on August 19, 2008

Via Weather Underground:

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 1:00 PM EDT on August 19, 2008

…Fay refuses to weaken…strong winds battering Lake Okeechobee…

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach…including Lake
Okeechobee.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida East Coast
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

For storm information specific to your area…including possible
inland watches and warnings…please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 100 PM EDT…1700z…the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 26.8 north…longitude 81.2 west. This
positions is very near Moore Haven Florida.

Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph…13 km/hr. This
general motion with a gradual turn to the north and a decrease in
forward speed in expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. On this
track…Fay should move over water near the East Coast of North
Florida on Wednesday.

Surface observations and radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are now near 65 mph…105 km/hr…with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely today as Fay moves inland over
Florida. Some restrengthening is expected once Fay moves back over
water.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles…185 km
from the center. An unofficial observation of 65 mph…105 km/hr
with a gust of 78 mph…125 km/hr was measured in Moore Haven.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb…29.12 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over the southern and east-central Florida Peninsula..with
maximum total amounts of 15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to
5 inches are possible in the northwestern Bahamas.

Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over the eastern half of the
Florida Peninsula.

Repeating the 100 PM EDT position…26.8 N…81.2 W. Movement
toward…north-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds…65
mph. Minimum central pressure…986 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 300 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Fay hits Southwest Florida, but never makes it to hurricane strength

Posted by Ginny on August 19, 2008

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